Hugh Hendry has written his first market review for 2 years for his Eclectica fund (which has been making strong returns)
He’s pretty contrarian, notably long USA and short China
“There is a near consensus that China will supplant America this decade. We do not believe this. We are more bullish on US growth than most. The momentous nature of recent advances in shale oil and gas extraction and America’s acceptance of the unpleasantness of debt and labour price restructuring looks to us as if it is creating yet another historic turning point. By embracing his inadequacies and leaping on his luck, the strong man may have finally broken the binds that had previously held him back. We are also more pessimistic on Chinese growth than ever. …… On the plus side we also believe that we are much closer than before to the beginning of a bull market of perhaps 1982, if not 1932, proportions. We just need the last shoe to drop.”
My favourite bit his is note on detachment. ”I cannot be reached by telephone” - no daily chat with bankers, no buddies, no phone calls, no IM’s.
